NBA odds: Conference finals lines, picks


The NBA is down to its version of the Final Four. Who ya got?

Let’s dive into the odds for the conference finals — the Boston CelticsMiami Heat in the Eastern Conference and the Golden State WarriorsDallas Mavericks in the Western Conference.

For more, from gambling-friendly schedules featuring live, updating odds to expert analysis and the day’s most-bet games, check out the NBA section on FOX Bet, the FOX Sports App and FOXSports.com!

RELATED:  Updated NBA title odds

FOX Bet trading operations specialist Martin Pascual said the surprising Mavericks will be riding an emotional high after ousting the top-seeded Phoenix Suns, but physical fatigue may be an issue.

“After that grueling seven-game series against the Suns, I am not sure how much left Dallas has in the tank,” Pascual stated. “I also like Golden State’s experience over them, which I think will make a big difference in this series.”

The Celtics, the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference via tiebreaker, will face the top-seeded Heat. Miami has the benefit of more rest after eliminating the Philadelphia 76ers in six games, winning each game by nine or more points.

“It feels like the Heat are a more complete team than the Celtics,” Pascual said. “As we’ve seen in the regular season, despite their star players missing so many games (Jimmy Butler played 57 regular-season games, Tyler Herro 66 and Bam Adebayo 56), they still got the one seed in the East. Additionally, if they reach a Game 7, it will be played on their home court.”

PICK: Heat to win series in seven games (+475 at time of pick, currently +240 at FOX Bet, bet $10 to win $34 total)

PICK: Warriors to win series in six games (+425 at time of bet, currently +1200 at FOX Bet, bet $10 to win $130 total)

Besides Mavericks fans, there’s another group celebrating the ouster of the Suns – the sports books.

“BetMGM had the biggest liability on Phoenix to win the NBA championship so the Suns losing in Game 7 was a good outcome for BetMGM,” BetMGM sports trader Christian Cipollini said. “Looking at the final four, any team but the Warriors winning would be good for the book.”

UPCOMING GAME

Celtics @ Heat (8:30 p.m. ET Wednesday, ESPN; series tied 2-2) 

Point spread: Celtics -2 (Celtics favored to win by more than 2 points, otherwise Heat cover)
Moneyline: Celtics -133 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $17.52 total); Heat +100 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $20 total)
Total scoring over/under: 203.5 points scored by both teams combined

Boston Celtics

BOS

Miami Heat

MIA

The Miami Heat are 11-3 (78.6%) against the spread vs. the Boston Celtics off two or more days rest over their last 14 games

SERIES WINNER ODDS

Celtics -189 (bet $10 to win $15.29); Heat +155 (bet $10 to win $25.50)

COMPLETED GAMES

Mavericks 119, Warriors 109 (Golden State leads series 3-1) 

Point spread: Mavericks (-1.5) cover by winning by more than 1.5 points (10)
Moneyline: Mavericks win as -133 favorites (bet $10 to win $17.52 total); Warriors were +100 underdogs (bet $10 to win $20 total)
Total scoring over/under: Over 215.5 points scored by both teams combined (228)

Golden State Warriors

GSW

Dallas Mavericks

DAL

The Golden State Warriors are 6-4 (60%) against the spread vs. the Dallas Mavericks across the regular season and playoffs since the start of 2020/2021

NOTES: The Mavericks led by as many as 29 points (99-70 after three quarters) before the Warriors made things interesting, cutting the deficit to eight. … Since 1991, teams that were down 3-0 in a playoff series are 39-57-5 against the spread (ATS) and 35-66 straight up (SU) in Game 4. … The Mavericks are 3-1-1 ATS and 4-1 SU all-time in Game 4 when trailing a series 3-0.

SERIES WINNER ODDS

Warriors -10000 (bet $10 to win $10.10); Mavericks +1800 (bet $10 to win $190)

Celtics 102, Heat 82 

Point spread: Celtics (-7) cover by winning by more than 7 points (20)
Moneyline: Celtics win as -333 favorites (bet $10 to win $13 total); Heat were +230 underdogs (bet $10 to win $31.50 total)
Total scoring over/under: Under 206.5 points scored by both teams combined (184)

Miami Heat

MIA

Boston Celtics

BOS

The Miami Heat are 8-1 (88.9%) against the spread vs. the Boston Celtics on the road off two or more days rest over their last 9 games

Warriors 109, Mavericks 100 

Point spread: Warriors (+3.5) cover by winning outright
Moneyline: Warriors win as +125 underdogs (bet $10 to win $22.50 total); Mavericks were -162 favorites (bet $10 to win $16.17 total)
Total scoring over/under: Under 216.5 points scored by both teams combined (209)

Golden State Warriors

GSW

Dallas Mavericks

DAL

The Dallas Mavericks are 3-2 (60%) vs. the Golden State Warriors at home across the regular season and playoffs since the start of 2020/2021

NOTES: Dallas’ Luka Doncic scored 40 points, the eighth time he’s scored 40 or more points in the postseason, a Mavericks record. Dallas is 2-6 in those games. … The Warriors have won at least one road game in 26 consecutive playoff series, an NBA record.

Heat 109, Celtics 103 (Miami leads series 2-1) 

Point spread: Heat (+6) cover by winning outright
Moneyline: Heat win as +200 underdogs (bet $10 to win $30 total); Celtics were -278 favorites (bet $10 to win $13.60 total)
Total scoring over/under: Over 208 points scored by both teams combined (212)

Miami Heat

MIA

Boston Celtics

BOS

The Miami Heat are 8-1 (88.9%) against the spread vs. the Boston Celtics on the road off two or more days rest over their last 9 games

NOTE: Miami star Jimmy Butler sat out the second half with inflammation in his right knee but early reports said the Heat expect him to play in Game 4. … Boston sank two 3-pointers in a span of 9.7 seconds in the final minute to help push the game over. … Miami is the first team in NBA postseason history to win only two quarters in the first three games and have a series lead, according to Elias Sports. The Heat have won the third quarter of Game 1 and the first quarter of Game 3 by a combined 46 points.

Warriors 126, Mavericks 117

Point spread: Warriors (-6.5) cover by winning by more than 6.5 points (9)
Moneyline: Warriors win as -278 favorites (bet $10 to win $13.60 total); Mavericks were +200 underdogs (bet $10 to win $30 total)
Total scoring over/under: Over 214 points scored by both teams combined (243)

Dallas Mavericks

DAL

Golden State Warriors

GSW

The Dallas Mavericks are 8-1 (88.9%) against the spread vs. the Golden State Warriors off two or more days rest over their last 9 games

Celtics 127, Heat 102

Point spread: Celtics (+1.5) cover by winning outright
Moneyline: Celtics -105 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $19.52 total); Heat -125 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $18 total)
Total scoring over/under: Over 207 points scored by both teams combined (229()

Boston Celtics

BOS

Miami Heat

MIA

The Miami Heat are 11-3 (78.6%) against the spread vs. the Boston Celtics off two or more days rest over their last 14 games

Warriors 112, Mavericks 87 

Point spread: Warriors (-5.5) cover by winning by more than 5.5 points (25)
Moneyline: Warriors win as -250 favorites (bet $10 to win $14 total); Mavericks were +185 underdogs (bet $10 to win $28.50 total)
Total scoring over/under: Under 214.5 points scored by both teams combined (199)

Dallas Mavericks

DAL

Golden State Warriors

GSW

The Dallas Mavericks are 8-1 (88.9%) against the spread vs. the Golden State Warriors off two or more days rest over their last 9 games

NOTES: Dallas’ last lead was 13-11 with 7:23 remaining in the first quarter. … Golden State’s Steph Curry (21 points, 12 rebounds) was the lone player with a double-double. … Every Warriors starter scored in double figures. … Golden State held Dallas to 31-for-86 shooting from the floor (36 %) and 11-for-48 shooting (22.9 %) on 3-pointers.

Heat 118, Celtics 107 

Point spread: Heat (-4.5) covers by winning by more than 4.5 points (11)
Moneyline: Heat win as -200 favorites (bet $10 to win $15 total); Celtics were +145 underdogs (bet $10 to win $24.50 total)
Total scoring over/under: Over 203 points scored by both teams combined (225)

Boston Celtics

BOS

Miami Heat

MIA

The Miami Heat are 11-3 (78.6%) against the spread vs. the Boston Celtics off two or more days rest over their last 14 games

NOTE: Miami’s Jimmy Butler scored 27 of his 41 points in the second half as the Heat erased an early Boston lead. … The Heat outscored the Celtics 39-14 in the third quarter. … Boston was without Marcus Smart (foot sprain) and Al Horford (COVID-19 protocol). 

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